As innovative new production technologies lower carbon fiber cost, the global market for carbon fiber reinforced plastics, or CFRPs, will more than double to $36 billion in 2020, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 13% from $14.6 billion in 2012, according to a Lux Research report.
Polyolefin-precursor carbon fiber, combined with alternative thermal treatment mechanisms, will reduce cost from a baseline of $21.2/kg today to $10.5/kg at pilot-line scale in 2017, driving greater adoption across newer industries such as pressure vessels, marine, consumer electronics, construction, tooling, and medical.
“Aerospace and wind will duke it out for supremacy, while potentially high-volume automotive uses advance at a pedestrian pace,” said Ross Kozarsky, Lux Research Senior Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Stronger, Lighter, Faster…Cheaper? How Innovation Will Affect Carbon Fiber’s Cost and Market Impact.”
To assess current CFRP manufacturing costs and examine the innovation potential of each step of the process, Lux Research analysts built a detailed model that examines material, capex, infrastructure, labor, and utility contributions, and their potential for cost reductions. Among their findings:
The report, titled “Stronger, Lighter, Faster…Cheaper? How Innovation Will Affect Carbon Fiber’s Cost and Market Impact,” is part of the Lux Research Advanced Materials Intelligence service.
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Press release. October 4, 2012; Image: Siemens