Denmark: Preliminary Data Indicates Change in Global Wind Turbine OEM Market Leader

BTM Consult, a leading forecaster and data source for the international wind industry, and part of Navigant’s Global Energy Practice, has announced its preliminary ranking for the top 5 turbine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), due to be officially released in late March in the World Market Update 2012.

Preliminary results show GE Wind dominating the U.S. market, and replacing Vestas as the global market leader. Rankings and observations are subject to change based on continual data review and quality control checks conducted between now and the report release date, however, at this point in time, the following rankings have been assigned by BTM Consult:

Preliminary World Market Update 2012 Ranking Highlights from 2012:

• Vestas is displaced from the No. 1 position for the first time since claiming the top spot from NEG Micon in 2000
• GE Wind ascends from No. 3 to No. 1 position, boosted by the rush to capitalise on the U.S. Production Tax Credit, with more than 15 percent global market share in 2012
• Despite a rapid ascent to global No. 2 in 2011, Goldwind drops out of the Top 5
• Gamesa falls out of the Top 5, driven by the moratorium in its home market of Spain
• While the four leading Chinese turbine OEMs, Goldwind, United Power, Sinovel, and Mingyang are included in the Top 10, none are among this year’s Top 5
• Sinovel continues to drop in the rankings, narrowly maintaining its position in the Top 10

The 150+ page World Market Update 2012 will be BTM Consult’s eighteenth edition of this annual wind energy market report. The report will include more than 80 tables, charts and graphs illustrating global wind market development, as well as a wind market forecast for 2013 – 2017 and predictions for the wind market through 2022.

Additional highlights from 2012 include:

1. Although policy uncertainty plagued a number of key markets – including Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, the UK, the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan – 2012 saw record global installations, driven by China and the U.S., together comprising more than 60 percent of the global market.
2. Key Asian markets (China and India) were impacted by delayed payments. India delayed payments from utilities to power generators, up to 14 months in some cases. Severe delays in payment of surcharge subsidies for renewables in China, in cases up to two years, have tightened cash flow throughout entire value chain.
3. A shift in technology back to traditional doubly-fed induction generators and towards medium speed hybrid drives.
4. A global shift in energy systems, with a resurgence of oil and gas (driven by shale), continued nuclear withdrawal, and a growing focus on energy efficiency.
5. A lack of transmission build-out has constrained development in both land based (e.g., China, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, and the U.S.) and offshore development (namely Germany).
6. While capacity factor improvements have continued to bring down wind’s levelised cost of energy, the announcement of new shale gas extraction plans have brought the natural gas prices down to lowest level since 2002, making the generation cost of wind power less competitive.
7. Emerging markets such as Latin America and Eastern Europe are being closely watched as meeting pricing and local content requirements are becoming decisive competitive parameters.
8. Wind turbine prices dropped by as much as 20-25 percent in western markets, and more than 35 percent in China (compared with the 2008 peak prices) before stablising in 2012.
9. Turbine vendors are taking on more risk under tough market conditions in an effort to increase their market share of the growing turbine maintenance market which will ultimately provide more stable margins and recurring revenues.
10. While the steadily expanding offshore wind sector has seen the increased availability of financing from institutional investors, it still needs utilities with project development and management experience to take on construction risk.

[mappress]

Press release, February 11, 2013; Image: Vestas