MAKE: Global Wind Power Market Shifts East over Next Decade

MAKE has released its Q1/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update, where the consultancy company presents an analysis of global and regional wind power installation forecasts through 2024.

MAKE projects more than 25% reduction in wind energy LCOE for some regions by 2025. The combination of innovation, supply chain maturation, carbon regulations and rising electricity demand supports an estimated 596GW of new wind energy capacity from 2015 to 2024.

The global wind industry grew 43% YoY in 2014, resulting in 48.5GW of grid-connected capacity. The rebound set an annual record, but the record will be short-lived. MAKE projects the global market to grow by over 13% YoY in 2015, due to near-term policy volatility in key markets and a transition to market-based mechanisms before annual growth averages over 3% across the rest of the outlook.

A 2.4% average annual growth rate (AAGR) in AMER is lower than in both EMEA and APAC due largely to policy expiration in North America. LCOE gains are pivotal to growth without longterm policy. Conversely, stable growth in Latin America is driving increased focus from developers and OEMs alike.

Mature markets in Europe provide a baseline of growth in EMEA, but a modest AAGR. An emerging offshore sector, rising stars in Eastern Europe, and promising markets in the Middle East and Africa help offset onshore saturation in Western Europe. The EU-level 2030 target offers critical policy stability, but requires enhancement to be effective.

China’s unparalleled growth dominates the industry. Adjustments to the FIT program cause annual variability in new capacity, but aggressive longterm targets maintain China’s average annual share of the global market at 40%.

Growth in the rest of Asia Pacific will result in the region accounting for nearly 60% of the global market in 2024. A resurgent India leads with an impressive AAGR of 11.7% due largely to policy momentum.

Firm order intake increased 13% YoY in 2014 to nearly 40GW. All regions except the Americas registered an increase, but sufficient order backlog will fulfill the 2015 forecast. Firm order intake in Q4 also increased YoY, particularly in China as developers capitalized on the old FIT scheme.

The Q1/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update includes a detailed market forecast update for more than 50 key and emerging markets for wind power from 2015 to 2024. The forecast data includes a split of expected onshore and offshore development, and analysis of the latest wind turbine order and pricing trends.