MAKE’s Q3/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update presents an analysis of global and regional wind power installation forecasts through 2024.
Firm order intake in H1 increased by 34% YoY to nearly 25GW. Overall demand in China accounted for more than a third of global order intake in H1 and new order capacity for offshore projects increased by more than 200% YoY primarily due to demand in China and Germany.
The Q3/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update includes a detailed market forecast update for more than 50 key and emerging markets for wind power from 2015 to 2024. The forecast data includes a split of expected onshore and offshore development, and analysis of the latest wind turbine order and pricing trends.
Furthermore, demand from a growing corporate and industrial class of offtakers in the US and improved market confidence in Iran have the largest impact on MAKE’s global 10-year outlook compared to last quarter’s analysis. A 2% upgrade in the US and a 114% upgrade in Iran influence a global upgrade of 0.3%.
Although near-term upgrades in the US and markets in Northern Europe increase three-year growth projections by 1%, the profile of global growth over ten years remains consistent with the Q2 analysis.
Minor shifts in project schedules characterize adjustments in the Americas compared to the Q2 analysis other than the before mentioned boost in the US. Policy momentum in the US in Q3 provides further optimism for growth both in the near-term and in the long-term, but largely represents potential upside to MAKE’s base forecast that does not assume a PTC extension.
In Europe, sub-regional macro and policy activity cause isolated adjustments throughout the ten-year outlook, but does not have a significant net impact compared to Q2. The lifting of economic sanctions in Iran is the largest contributor to a 4% increase in the outlook for the Middle East and Africa.
China recorded a strong first half relative to growth in other markets, but will have to post an even bigger second half to reach the record level of growth anticipated for 2015. The outlook stays consistent with the Q2 analysis, as MAKE expects order intake and installation activity to continue at a rapid pace through Q3.
The outlook for Asia Pacific excluding China is downgraded by 0.1% compared to Q2 primarily due to minor project adjustments in markets other than India, which is unchanged from last quarter.