Study: Canary Islands Can Save a Bundle by Going All-In on Renewables

The Canary Islands could meet their entire electricity requirements from renewable energy sources by 2050 at under half the price needed to finance the existing oil dependent system, according to a study produced and published by the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; DLR) on behalf of Greenpeace.

Spain’s archipelago currently meets almost all of its electricity requirements from oil, yet its surroundings are favourable for the intensive use of renewable resources such as solar, wind and marine power, according to DLR. The energy [r]evolution scenario shows how the dependence on oil can be stopped, thereby eliminating emissions and the cost of purchasing fossil fuels – without having to swap to natural gas during this transition phase.

To fully convert the archipelago’s energy system to renewable energies, turbines with a total output of 12 gigawatts must be gradually installed by 2050. Photovoltaic, wind and solar thermal energy will therefore be the most widely used technologies and together they will supply over 80 percent of electricity. Geothermal, biomass and marine power should also be used.

“It is important for us that a balanced combination is made, which is not too one-sided and dependent on a single technology. We aim to use each technology according to its benefits and create redundancies, so that we can also offset specific uncertainties in the future technological developments,” said DLR researcher Sonja Simon, who had the overall responsibility for the regional energy scenario developed at DLR.

DLR researchers estimate the total investment costs required to implement this scenario by 2050 to be EUR 20 billion. This is offset by saving EUR 42 billion in fossil fuel resources for the same period.

“According to our calculations, the money saved from not having to purchase oil would cover the entire investment and also allow the construction of additional supporting infrastructure, such as energy storage systems and power networks, for example,” said Simon.

There are also significant differences in the costs of electricity generation: in the energy [r]evolution scenario, the price of a kilowatt hour in 2050 will be EUR 0.17-0.20, including storage systems and network expansion, and in the reference scenario with no additional infrastructure, this will be EUR 0.23.

With regard to the overall energy demand, the study assumes that this will fall by 37 percent in the progressive scenario – mainly as a result of extensive energy efficiency measures – without having an adverse effect on the energy reliability and comfort. At the same time, the share taken up by electricity in the overall demand will increase. One reason for this is the electrification of transport thanks to the rapid introduction of electric vehicles, as envisaged by the study.

In three sub-scenarios, DLR researchers also investigated how the expansion of the electricity network across the entire archipelago (Grid+) and by demand side management (DSM) differ from the base scenario, which mainly relies on the existing network infrastructure and planning and only connects the islands to a limited extent.

These differences lie mainly in the generation structure and respective installed capacities. Potential network expansion (Grid+) has a specific impact on the role of offshore wind farms. In all three sub-scenarios, photovoltaic power will play the biggest role in electricity generation and be the principal contributor by 2020, together with wind power.