Industry Expects Floating Wind to Hit Commercialisation Point in 2035, DNV Research Finds

February 22, 2023, by Adnan Memija

Floating offshore wind could reach full commercialisation by 2035, said 60 per cent of respondents in the latest research that was done by DNV, with 25 per cent believing it will be as early as 2030.

Kincardine floating wind farm in Scotland; Photo source: Eni / Plenitude

According to DNV, reaching these targets is ambitious, but early signs are promising, with 60 per cent of organisations with revenue-producing business in wind expecting to increase investment in floating offshore wind in 2023.

The research surveyed 244 developers as well as investors, manufacturers, advisors, and operators across the globe.

“The view from the industry is clear. There is overwhelming confidence that floating wind can achieve commercial success in a little over 10 years. DNV predicts that by 2050, 15% of all offshore wind installed capacity will come from floating turbines. However, barriers must be overcome”, said Ditlev Engel, CEO, Energy Systems at DNV.

Reaching full commercialisation will depend, in part, on the investment potential of key markets, said DNV.

The market size was cited by 21 per cent of respondents as the first criteria for choosing a market to invest in, followed by regulatory and political stability (16 per cent), and power grid suitability (12 per cent), according to the research.

“Governments can play a leading role in making the market attractive for investment, with long-term, stable policy and regulatory frameworks, and by adapting critical infrastructure such as grids and ports. The industry itself will need to look at cost reduction through greater standardization and scale-up”, said Engel.

For floating offshore wind to scale-up, it is important that its levelised cost of energy (LCOE) drops as much and as quickly as possible, said DNV.

The organisation’s Energy Transition Outlook forecasts that levelised costs for floating offshore wind could fall by almost 80 per cent by 2050.

21 per cent of survey respondents believe that standardisation – either through a reduction in the number of concepts or the emergence of a preferable concept will be a significant factor for LCOE reduction, according to DNV’s research.

Bigger turbines and industrialisation come next, followed by larger wind farms. The industry also cited that standardisation was a factor to mitigate risk.

Supply-chain challenges also come into play as the offshore wind sector is battling high commodity prices and capacity limitations, according to DNV. Many floating wind professionals that were surveyed said that the top risk was a lack of port infrastructure.

The second biggest risk cited in the research paper was installation vessel availability, tied with capacity.

The number of mooring and anchoring installation vessels and the capabilities required could be a challenge for the industry as more moorings and anchors are set to be installed over the next ten years than have ever been seen in the oil and gas industry, DNV said.

“Cost reduction does not happen by waiting, which makes it crucial that the first generation of larger floating windfarms are installed by 2030, to deliver on the promising outlook for floating wind”, said Magnus Ebbesen, Segment Lead Floating Offshore Wind at DNV.