K2 Management Publishes Offshore Wind Energy Yield Study, Warns About ‘One-Size-Fits-All’ Approach to Assessment

December 11, 2023, by Adrijana Buljan

As more countries climb the offshore wind map and, at the same time, the industry is facing uncertainties, energy yield assessment needs to be validated as widely as possible across diverse geographies, rather than assume the efficacy of a one-size-fits-all approach, according to K2 Management (K2M).

The project advisory and engineering consultancy has published ‘Offshore Energy Yield Predictions — Validation Report 2023’, which it says is the largest independent offshore energy yield validation study to date.

“This study not only redefines how investors approach offshore wind development in these times of turbulence in offshore wind, but also prompts a broader reflection on the industry’s methodologies and the imperative of prioritizing accuracy over optimism. There is no silver bullet when it comes to energy yield predictions — consistency and technical excellence take time to build,” said Thomas Grey, Principal Specialist and Offshore Lead – Analysis Services at K2M.

With energy yield assessment methods originally tailored for smaller onshore turbines, there are concerns in the offshore wind industry about their universal applicability, particularly in addressing complex interactions such as wind turbine wakes, which can differ significantly from project to project.

Joel Manning, Manager & R&D Lead – Analysis Services at K2M, said: “As wind energy grows, we are on a continuous learning curve: we can’t blindly rely on existing models — we need to validate and evolve our methodologies. Beyond catering to early-stage projects, energy yield predictions have a profound significance which extends to those approaching financial close and in the process of M&A.”

The report maps out a high-fidelity methodology for energy yield predictions which leverages large datasets to minimise uncertainty, while accounting for specific regional considerations through nuanced manipulation of existing software.

The study’s findings demonstrate that energy yield assessment methods must be validated to secure and maintain investor confidence and, in a sector where this confidence hinges on energy yield predictions, the report emphasises the necessity of ensuring they are precise and backed by proven pre-construction best practices, according to the consultancy.

“Consistent and precise data in an industry susceptible to future shocks aims to provide all stakeholders with a reliable benchmark for the entire development process. Contrary to more optimistic projections prevalent in the market, this approach prioritizes accuracy over inflated numbers. Looser bounds of uncertainty can create higher figures in the short term, but do not work to build long-term trust with investors or bolster a project’s financial and operational longevity, and can derail progress altogether,” K2 Management says.

K2M’s Joel Manning further highlighted that razor-sharp assessments were vital to guide stakeholders through the entire process.

“At K2M we’ve been able to comprehensively validate our methods, and we’ve seen how accurate energy yield assessments not only speed projects along, but ultimately keep them spinning,” Manning said.