Roadmap Outlines Path for Türkiye to Reach 7 GW of Offshore Wind by 2040

November 8, 2024, by Adnan Memija

The World Bank Group, in collaboration with the Republic of Türkiye’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, has launched an offshore wind roadmap for the country that outlines the potential for up to 7 GW of capacity to be installed by 2040.

The Government of Türkiye has set a target of 5 GW installed capacity for offshore wind power by 2035. According to the World Bank, the country’s waters have areas with a total technical potential offshore wind resource estimated at 75 GW.

Favorable offshore wind resources are located near high-demand power centres, offering a large-scale, domestic power generation source. Most areas with good resources are said to be suited for floating foundation solutions, given water depths that exceed 50 metres.

The analysis identifies the country’s strategic location, close to European and Asian markets, as an opportunity to become a regional clean energy hub, said the World Bank. The country’s strong industrial base and skilled workforce, particularly its successful onshore wind, shipbuilding and maritime industries, are well-positioned to thrive in the offshore wind supply chain with sufficient project volume and pipeline, the organization stated.

“Offshore wind, as an important renewable energy resource, holds the potential to accelerate Türkiye’s transition to net-zero by complementing ongoing onshore wind and solar investment plans, drive supply chain growth and job creation, and strengthen the country’s position as a green energy hub in the region”, said Humberto Lopez, World Bank Country Director for Türkiye.

According to the roadmap, four initial exploration areas have been identified, and these are found in the Aegean Sea (around Çanakkale and Ayvalik), the Sea of Marmara, and, to a lesser extent, the Black Sea.

Taking into consideration environmental, social, and technical constraints, the potential development is estimated at about 66 GW, equivalent to around 60 per cent of the total existing generation capacity in the country, according to the roadmap.

The majority of the initial exploration areas for offshore wind are said to be in deeper water suited for floating technology, representing over 59 GW of potential across 13,270 square kilometres. According to the roadmap, very little of this resource potential is in shallow water (less than 50 metres) suited to fixed-foundation offshore wind, representing around 6.8 GW of potential across 1,510 square kilometres.

“The roadmap provides key recommendations to fully realise this new source of domestic renewable energy, including policy development and planning for a pipeline of bankable projects which carefully mitigate environmental and social impacts”, said Sean Whittaker, Co-Lead of the World Bank Offshore Wind Development Program.

The scenarios in the report illustrate two hypothetical development paths for offshore wind in Türkiye. The first, “low growth”, assumes 3.5 GW of offshore wind installed by the end of 2040.

In this scenario, it is estimated that by 2030, supply chain activities could create 32,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) job years and contribute USD 4 billion to the country’s economy. The low growth scenario could be achieved with moderated action by the government, focusing on the first few small-scale projects.

The second scenario, “high growth”, assumes 7 GW of offshore wind is installed by the end of 2040. In this scenario, it is estimated that supply chain activities could create 110,000 FTE years and USD 16 billion gross value added to the country’s economy.

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To achieve these scenarios, the roadmap outlines 21 recommended actions for the government to consider.

This includes setting the country’s vision beyond 2035 as part of long-term energy system planning; implementing regulatory and policy frameworks that proactively de-risk projects; establishing a bankable power purchase agreement (PPA); introducing best-practice health and safety standards; upgrading grid and port infrastructure; and developing domestic supply chains.

As part of the next steps forward, the World Bank is supporting the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources in implementing the “Türkiye – European Union Instrument for PreAccession (IPA) Energy Sector Program Phase IV Project – Offshore Wind Support”.

The objective of this project through to 2027 is to assist the country in improving the investment potential for offshore wind by de-risking selected sites and reinforcing institutional capacities via measurement campaigns as well as providing technical, environmental, and social analysis, said the World Bank.