According to research from Norway-headquartered Rystad Energy, the global offshore wind industry is set for a rebound in 2025, with capacity additions expected to reach 19 GW and sector-wide expenditure projected to hit USD 80 billion (approximately EUR 76 billion).
A record wave of lease auctions is driving the resurgence, said Rystad Energy, with the world’s largest offshore wind market, mainland China , accounting for 65 per cent of new capacity. With this increase, total additions will exceed the previous peak in 2021 by about 1 GW, surpassing 7.7 GW added in 2024, 10.2 GW in 2023, and 9.3 GW in 2022.
In 2024, a record 55 GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally (excluding China). However, according to the research, not all of this capacity has yet been awarded.
For instance, the US saw no bids for its 3 GW floating wind auction in Oregon last year, while the Gulf of Maine auction awarded about 6 GW of the approx. 13 GW offered.
Lease auction openings are projected to decline in 2025, said Rystad Energy, with an expected 30-40 GW available.
“ Global offshore wind is set for a robust year in 2025; however, certain signals could affect its smooth upward trajectory. US federal policy is creating significant global ripple effects, hindering offshore wind development, especially where a large portion of auctioned capacity lies ,” said Petra Manuel, senior offshore wind analyst at Rystad Energy.
“ President Donald Trump’s January memorandum halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), citing environmental and safety concerns, could last throughout his term, pausing new developments and creating continued uncertainty for ongoing projects .”
Rystad stated that project delays impacted final investment decisions (FID) for new projects in 2024, leading to a decline in project approvals. Only a few US projects reached FID last year, including Empire Wind 1 , Sunrise Wind , and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW).
The company expects to see around the same level of FIDs this year as last in Europe and Asia, and some possible upside in the US with US Wind, Southcoast Wind, and New England Wind projects obtaining offtake agreements and construction and operation (COP) approvals.
Projects advancing last year include Red Rock Power and ESB’s 1.1 GW Inch Cape in the UK and Equinor’s 810 MW Empire Wind 1 in the US. Other wind farms reaching FID in 2024 include Iberdrola’s 315 MW Windanker in Germany, RWE and TotalEnergies’ 795 MW OranjeWind in the Netherlands, and Ørsted’s 924 MW Sunrise Wind 1 in the US.
The UK, Poland, and Germany are set to lead a surge in European FIDs in 2025, said Rystad, reaching 9.5 GW. Poland, in particular, is expected to see multiple major wind farms reach FID, including Polenergia and Equinor’s Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3, following the recent FID for Ørsted and PGE’s Baltica 2 in late January 2025.
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