Global Offshore Wind to Top 520 GW by 2040, Floating Wind to Play Major Role – Rystad Energy

August 23, 2024, by Adnan Memija

According to Rystad Energy, global offshore wind capacity will surpass 520 GW by 2040, with floating wind installations nearing 90 GW by that time.

In 2023, the offshore wind sector saw a seven per cent increase in new capacity additions compared to the previous year, said Rystad Energy. This momentum is expected to accelerate this year, with new capacity additions expected to grow by nine per cent to over 11 GW by the end of the year.

By 2040, Europe is expected to account for more than 70 per cent of global floating wind installations. Although some project delays beyond 2030 are anticipated, there will likely be a strong push to accelerate deployment, according to Rystad Energy.

As a result, floating wind capacity is projected to approach 90 GW by 2040, led by the UK, France, and Portugal, with Asia (excluding mainland China) expected to account for 20 per cent of global installations.

“The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fueled by increased investment and auction activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks present significant challenges to the industry’s further expansion“, said Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst at Rystad Energy.

“While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance.”

As for the fixed-bottom market, Rystad Energy expects the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands to emerge as the three dominant players. Together, these three countries are projected to account for a total of 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040, followed by the US with less than 40 GW.

Between 2025 and 2030, the Americas, led by the US, will experience significant growth, said Rystad Energy, beginning with close to 2 GW of installed capacity by 2025.

Asia, excluding mainland China, will follow, with 7 GW in 2025 and reaching nearly 28 GW by 2030, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam emerging as major markets in the region, according to Rystad Energy.

Europe is projected to have 41 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and more than 112 GW by 2030. Latin American countries, particularly Brazil and Colombia, are expected to begin contributing to offshore wind capacity between 2030 and 2035, said Rystad Energy.

By 2030, the company expects Europe to have installed almost 5 GW of floating wind, while Asia, excluding mainland China, is projected to add 2 GW.

In the following five-year period from 2030 to 2035, Rystad Energy foresees a substantial ramp-up in installations. Europe is expected to add 20 GW of floating wind capacity, and Asia, excluding mainland China, up to 5 GW.

According to Rystad Energy, they do not expect floating wind projects to be installed in other regions until the period of 2035 to 2040 when the company anticipates the technology to advance toward maturity.

By 2040, Rystad Energy predicts that Europe will have installed more than 65 GW of floating wind capacity, while installations in Asia, excluding mainland China, will have reached 17 GW.