Brazil Could Tap Into 96 GW of Offshore Wind by 2050, Says World Bank Report

July 18, 2024, by Adrijana Buljan

Brazil holds a technical offshore wind potential of over 1,200 GW and – with offshore wind strategy and policies, permitting regulations, grid and port upgrades in place – could install as much as 96 GW of generation capacity by 2050, according to a study released by the World Bank Group.

The study, conducted by DNV, cites the World Bank’s estimates published in 2020, which show Brazil has 1,228 GW of potential offshore wind to tap into, including 480 GW through fixed-bottom (at water depths less than 70 metres) and 748 GW through floating wind technology (at water depths from 70 metres to 1 kilometre).

Building on this, the report “Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil” brings three scenarios that show that even with the base case, Brazil has an opportunity to install 16 GW by 2050, which represents 3 per cent of the country’s generation capacity.

The intermediate growth scenario envisages 32 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2050 and, according to the ambitious scenario, the country could build as much as 96 GW of offshore wind farms by 2050 – if a clear energy strategy, significant infrastructure investment, and prompt action to harness the growing interest in offshore wind in Brazil are made.

Offshore wind can support Brazil’s green hydrogen targets, drive economic growth, and potentially create up to 516,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs and contribute USD 168 billion (approximately EUR 154 billion) in national gross value added under the third, ambitious scenario.

Image: “Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil” report; The World Bank Group / DNV

Among the challenges to fulfilling these scenarios, the report highlights that, since offshore wind has higher initial costs, Brazil would need to explore options for concessional finance and will also need to ensure that initial seabed rights are allocated primarily based on qualitative rather than price-based criteria.

Transmission upgrades and grid flexibility to integrate offshore wind effectively into the energy mix would also require substantial investments. Upgrades are also needed on regional ports and the logistics infrastructure, and the supply chain needs to be developed to support the production of large components, all of which adds to the overall costs.

Furthermore, clear permitting policies are needed as environmental and social considerations require meticulous planning and community consultations.

“Whatever course policymakers and stakeholders choose to chart, they must act swiftly to capitalize on current interest, particularly amid waning investor enthusiasm for emerging markets. Updates in transmission networks, port infrastructure, and manufacturing capabilities, along with Environmental & Social sensitivity mapping – all prerequisites for offshore wind development –, have lengthy timelines. Providing a clear market entry pathway, including seabed exclusivity and offtake arrangements in initial offshore wind auctions, is essential,” DNV stated in a press release issued on 18 July.

DNV and the World Bank prepared the study in collaboration with Brazil’s Ministry of Mining and Energy (MME), and the Energy Research Office (EPE), to provide a thorough analysis for policymakers and stakeholders.

Last year, the Ministry and EPE published a new version of Brazil’s offshore wind roadmap after the regulatory framework for energy generation was updated.

The new offshore wind roadmap includes considerations regarding the assignment of federal areas for offshore wind development in accordance with Brazil’s law on regularisation, administration, leasing and disposal of areas.

Interest in exploring the feasibility and construction of offshore wind farms in Brazil has been shown by multiple industry players, especially over the past few years, during which the Institute for the Environment and Natural Resources (IBAMA) has been receiving applications for environmental investigation licences in connection with offshore wind projects.

Many of the projects have been proposed by European developers, including Iberdrola (through its Brazilian subsidiary Neoenergia), Acciona, Corio Generation and oil & gas majors TotalEnergies, Shell, and Equinor, as well as Brazil’s Petrobras.

According to the last update from IBAMA in April, there are now applications for environmental investigation permits for 97 projects totalling more than 234 GW of potential generation capacity.