As the US seeks to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains by prioritising domestic oil and gas, its offshore wind sector has faced many challenges, from policy setbacks to rising inflationary costs. Meanwhile, Rystad Energy projects that China will account for 45 per cent of global offshore wind capacity by 2030.
Despite unfavourable conditions in the US, Rystad Energy research outlines that the global offshore wind capacity will reach 16 GW by the end of 2025 due to projects already underway, with two-thirds of them being developed in China.
By 2030, Rystad Energy forecasts China’s offshore wind projects will claim 45 per cent of the world’s cumulative capacity.
US renewable energy investments have decreased 36 per cent year-on-year so far in 2025, according to Rystad Energy, whereas European investments are rising as companies redirect capital away from the US.
Stop work orders were issued for both Ørsted’s Rhode Island offshore wind farm and Equinor’s 704 MW New York project , with the latter reaching a deal that lifted the administration’s ban.
Meanwhile, China-based CNOOC stated that it is staging its offshore wind portfolio expansion, with an offshore wind project in the 1.5 GW Hainan CZ7 planned to be commissioned before 2030. The project is approved and is to be the first utility-scale project for CNOOC. For European energy companies with less US exposure, their reliance on China and other nations will only be enhanced, said Rystad Energy.
Rystad Energy says that the chances of creating an alternate, renewables-driven supply chain to compete with China are low, with Western original equipment manufacturers coming back to the country’s favourable business environment after fleeing in 2020.
The company considers the challenge significant, noting that about 25 per cent of manufacturing sites producing key components for Western OEMs’ IEC-certified turbine platforms are located in China.